Maliki's New Push In Amara

By Cernig

Reuters is reporting that the Iraqi Army is readying a new crackdown on Shiite militias in the Sadrist stronghold of Amara. But, just like the last three offensives - Basrah, Sadr City and Mosul - it's being telegraphed far in advance so that the targets of the crackdown have enough time to hide their weapons and go to ground.

The operation is the latest stage in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's drive to stamp his government's authority on areas of the country previously controlled by Shi'ite militias or Sunni Arab insurgents.

"The decision to undertake the operation has been taken, but the zero hour has not been set yet," Adel al-Muhoudir, governor of Maysan province, told Reuters.

Iraqi tanks were seen on major streets in Amara. Iraqi security forces patrolled and many checkpoints had been set up in the city.

The city is a stronghold of anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who agreed to a ceasefire after U.S.-backed Iraqi forces launched a major crackdown on his Mehdi Army militia in Basra in March.

The security official, who asked not to be named, said the aim of the operation was to arrest wanted people and collect "heavy" weapons. It would also target armed groups and some members of the Mehdi Army, he said.

A spokesman for U.S. forces declined to give details of the operation, saying it was "Iraqi-led and planned".

Helicopters have dropped thousands of leaflets warning of the crackdown and although Iraqi Army armor and troops are taking up visible positions all over the city - one of Iraq's poorest but capital of an oil-rich region - they haven't yet begun any searches or checks.

There's definitely an element of kabuki in the crackdown, as the Sadrists have already been in negotiation with the provincial government over methods and "red lines".

Sadr ordered a delegation of clerics to go to Amara for talks with regional officials on how the operation would be carried out, said Sayyid Kareem al-Battat, a delegation member.

Battat said the delegation carried instructions from Sadr for Mehdi Army members to respect the ceasefire ordered by the cleric.

He said the provincial governor had promised security forces would respect human rights and that a committee of tribal leaders would supervise the operation.

"We have no objection to implementing the law and arresting wanted people. We don't think that the operation is directed at Sadr partisans because we are all brothers in the city," Battat said.

The scene is thus set for a repeat performance of the three previous "crackdowns" under even more controlled circumstances and without any embarassing running to Iran to broker ceasefires. The Sadrists will go to ground after hiding their heavy weapons and thus preserve their claim to be a legitimate part of the political scene, the security forces will control the city with little if any fighting and Maliki will have another easy victory to point to as he makes the case that his government has everything under control.

All of this suggests to me that Maliki, by carefully arranging this easy victory, is not quite as overconfident in his security forces as I've previously thought. I now would tend to agree with Dr. iRack at Abu Muqawama, who writes today that Maliki is talking tough on the SOFA talks as if he is truly "willing to play chicken with the talks because a crash—i.e., the collapse of the talks—would no longer be the end of the world" but is actually more concerned, as are others like the ISCI, about growing public anger at leaks of the Bush administration's excessive demands.

So they are feigning outrage as a prophylactic against nationalist sentiment, while they really hope to reach some accord that is a watered down version of the original one. They will then exaggerate the “concessions” they get out of the Americans and play up the end of the “humiliating” UNSCR to blunt public outcry and get the agreement through the Iraqi parliament. If they can’t get enough concessions out of the Bush administration, they will perhaps support a re-up on the UNSCR and restart talks with the next U.S. administration.

Pre-arranged almost-bloodless "victories" in places like Amara strengthen Maliki's hand in negotiations, preserve Sadr's claim to political legitimacy while ridding him of some of his movements more mercurial and belligerent members and give an illusion of peace. What's not to like? Well, maybe the fact that all that will happen is that the wide factional cracks in the Shiite majority will just be punted down the road a ways rather than defused.

Comments

[Ron Beasley]

I read Dr Iraq's post this morning and on the surface it makes sense but I can't help but think it is far more complex than that. I still think the entire thing is being choreographed by Teheran. As long as the neonuts remain in power it is to their advantage to have US troops in Iran - 130,000 hostages. If the US, or Israel, were to attack Iran they would simply have to give the word and much of the Badr infested Iraqi Security Force in addition to the Mahdi army would turn on the US troops. Iran is waiting to see what happens in November and this kabuki dance is little more than a holding pattern until then. If Obama wins in November the Iraqis with the "encouragement" of Teheran will decide that it is time for the western troops to go.

[smintheus]

Maliki's comments in Jordan yesterday certainly gave the impression that they were a reaction to his embarrassment at the publicity that the proposals had gotten:

>>"We have reached an impasse, because when we opened these negotiations we did not realise that the US demands would so deeply affect Iraqi sovereignty and this is something we can never accept," he told Jordanian newspaper editors, according to a journalist present at the meeting.<<

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jccXDl0KZstrt0ucjxRFcbCfrXNA

"When we opened these negotiations..." IOW, we aren't at fault, honest, for trying to negotiate with the US. But now we all see that they're unreasonable. The kind of thing you say when the issue is public perception at least as much as the deal itself.

Fwiw, I'll be posting something longish tomorrow evening at DK on SOFA.