What's going on in Sadr City

By Fester:

There are two very distinct views of what is going on in Sadr City and Iraq in general.  Dr iRack at Abu Muquama captures this divergence very well and then presents a very strong and binding constraint of interpretation.  I agree with the second interpretation best:

1. Helping a legitimate Iraqi government (with growing cross-sectarian support) crack down on "criminals," "outlaws," and "thugs" who challenge the "rule of law" and the state's Weberian claim to monopolize violence; or

2. Whether we are simply caught in the middle of an intra-Shia power struggle, empowering one side (Dawa and ISCI) in its effort to weaken its principal rival (Sadr/JAM) in their ongoing competition for control of sourthern Iraq and the hearts and minds of the Shia masses in the lead up to provincial elections.

The significant constraint on interpretation is legitimacy of the Sadrist current.  It has it within its base and the Maliki government does not.  Some of this is identity based, but the majority of the legitimacy is presence base --- the Sadrists have been there for the poor and the dispossessed displaced Shi'ite communities for decades now.  And they have not left despite having that option.  Presence counts in all relationships:

Sadr continues to have more legitimacy than the central government or the coalition. Part of this is due to family reputation, part is due to Sadr's nationalism, and part is due to the extensive efforts by the Sadrists to provide essential services to the impoverished residents of Sadr City. It is also a byproduct of the dysfunctionality of the Maliki government and the inability of the government of Iraq to surge humanitarian aid into Sadr City during the recent fighting. In other words, in the competition to provide governance and legitimacy, the Sadrists have a significant advantage and will likely continue to do so.