Rendell as Obama's VP does not make sense

By Fester

Now that the primary season finally appears to be winding down and exhausted political junkies like myself can take a breather before the pre-convention definition and registration battles begin, the talk is shifting to what arrangements can be made for Hillary Clinton to drop out gracefully.  The Vice Presidential slot is an attractive and valuable piece of trade bait for the Obama campaign to dangle as it is an enforceable agreement by the losing campaign. So what does he do with it?

He could go and use it to reward a supporter who complements his abilities, but for the sake of this post, let us assume that the VP slot is in active consideration as a trading chip.  I don't think offering the slot to Senator Clinton makes a whole lot of sense as the offer would be awkward as hell, and when I was talking with Jeff the Election Geek recently, he noted it would be a diminution of her power base.  There is more value to be a powerful Senator with an independent fund raising base than to be a VP to a President who is not beholden to her power structure.  This makes a significant amount of sense.

So working with the assumption that the VP chip could go to a Clinton supporter, the next tier of supporters include several Senators, notably Evan Bayh of Indiana and a couple of governors, including Governor Rendell of Pennsylvania.  The logic here would be that a Clintonite VP candidate would be a signal to high information voters and high value Clinton leaning surrogates that they would receive significant attention in an Obama administration.  At the same time, the Clintonite running mate would be useful in shoring up Appalachia for Obama. 

Governor Rendell would definitely qualify as a credible signal to Clinton supporting institutions and high information voters.  He served as a senior member of the Clinton era DNC and is comfortable in traditional machine politics.   However I do not see Governor Rendell being particularly valuable for the second role of appealing to Appalachia.

The first problem is  geographic.  Rendell's power base in Pennsylvania has always been Philadelphia and he comes across as a big city, big machine guy.  In Pennsylvania that can work and work well as Philadelphia and its inner ring suburbs can swamp the rest of the state when assisted by Pittsburgh voting the same way.  However during both of his campaigns for the governorship, he underperformed in the low population parts of the central section of the state compared to his urban performance.  This is not surprising given that the central portion of the state is the GOP base, but it shows his limited general election value proposition.

Secondly, Pennsylvania should be relatively secure for Obama once the ground game gets moving and McCain is defined as unacceptable.  Democrats in the state have a massive and growing voter registration advantage and a vastly improved ground game.  The traditional machine in SW PA was pushed and pushed hard by the combination of the parallel local progressive shadow machine and the Obama campaign.  All three groups benefited from the competition. 

Finally, Gov. Rendell has indicated multiple times that he is not interested in the position and that it really flatlines his career as the VP.  He is still young enough after he leaves the governorship in 2010 to have significant influence and maybe another serious run at another office.  However if was to be VP he would be 73 on Inauguration Day 2017.  Age is a career killer for Democratic presidential primary voters as they have responded best to young, charismatic candidates (Obama & Bill Clinton).  He would not be a viable or  valuable successor and thus any potential second term Obama presidency would have significantly less political leverage for internal party battles. 

Comments

[wufnik]

Someone (I can't remember who) suggested it will be a Virginian--Webb or Warner. Seems to make the most sense. Actually, Obama/Webb is pretty much a dream ticket in most respects.

[Don]

You make some interesting points yet you underestimate his strengths as a possible VP candidate.

He is one of the few possibilities who could simultaneously help heal the nationwide rifts that have occurred as a result of this prolonged while actually guaranteeing an extremely battleground important state ... or two, as Ohio would probably be brought along with Pennsylvania with his being on the ticket. That's a lot of electoral votes which are all the more needed as Florida will likely go Republican. As to the rest of Applachia ... they'll not vote for Obama no matter who his VP is. As to Rendell's age if he decides to use VP as staging area for his own future Presidential ambitions - remember the President who won with the biggest mandate was the not so young Reagan.

Strickland may also fill that bill. Other "give a chip to the Clinton side" options offer less though - Bayh? Nah. Clark would be a shot in the dark. And Hillary is as you say: No way. If the VP chip is be given to the Hillary side Rendell or Strickland bring the most benefit.

The other direction may be to go with a strong articulate female governor from a Western state who has experience winning "in the Red" ... Sebelius more likely than not. She fits Obama's narrative better, could help get some contestable western purplish states, but heals the rift somewhat less.

[fester]

Don --- I completely agree with you that Strickland is the best choice if the VP slot is a bargaining chip --- he does well in Appalachia, he has some netroots activist love, and he has a potent political machine in a needed region (Ohio and SW PA). I think he is a much better choice than Rendell.

[Hoosier]

Senator Bayh got very mean spirited in Indiana and lost the respect of many Democrats around the state. I dont think he would be a good candidate as he carries baggage from the Clinton campaign. Besides he is totally devoid of charisma and is a terrible speaker.

[O]

Rendell will never run as VP because he wouldn't let anything more complicated than a toaster in the hands of Katherine Baker-Knoll (the Lt. Gov.). Look for him as Sec. of Energy once his term as Gov. expires.