Stop-Loss and deployment pace

By Fester:

Stop-loss is the fine print in the enlistment contracts that says the terms of the contract can be violated for the good of the service.  Most commonly the term that is violated is the length of active duty committment.  Since 2003, stop-loss has been a common expedient to maintain end unit strength during combat deployments.  It also has been used to keep very hard to replace people in the service for a bit longer.  Stop-loss usage had gone down but now it is on the upswing again. 

Under recommendations from Defense Secretary Robert Gates in January 2007, troops affected by "stop loss" dropped to a three-year low in May, but that number is now up 43 percent, USA Today said Tuesday.

So what proportion of this increase is due to unit cohesion effects, and what proportion is due to other causes?

Typical policy has a stop-loss order in effect for units that are set to deploy to a combat zone within three months, and then for the entire deployment while adding another three months on the back-end for a unit to wind down.  If we assume that soon to be contract end-dated soldiers are randomly distributed throughout the military, we can start making some quick assumptions.  In January 2007 there were roughly 160,000 US troops deployed in combat (~130,000 in Iraq, 30,000 in Afghanistan).  The surge and a Marine battalion to Afghanistan increased this number by roughly 33,000 or by 20.6%. Increasing the deployed units accounts for roughly half of the increased use of stop-loss. 

Are there other explanations for the rest of the variance?

Another aspect that would be in play is the size of the stop-loss window.  Stop-loss is an attempt to keep units together for the deployment cycle.  The initial stop-loss period was appoximately 18 months (3 pre, 12 in combat, 3 post).  However the extension of tours to 15 months in Iraq increases the stop-loss window by 3 months or by 16%

The combination of longer tours and more tours accounts for roughly 38% of the 43% increase in stop loss orders.  The remaining 5 percent is probably attributable to reality interfering with my assumptions and quirky, localized needs/cases. 

Comments

[do i look like a klown ?]

what is deeply ironic / hilarious about the current stop / loss ( i.e., a draft by any other name ) is that when i was in the Big Green Weenie in the 1980's the usa military was RIFing ( Reduction In Force ) the hell out of the numbers. All 3 year enlistment guys ( i was one ) got out 6 - 12 months early. But now the usa military is basically enslaving our fellow americans in order to Steal Iraq's Oil and to liquidate Iraqis.

wonders never cease.

you just cannot make this shit up.