Sadr Gives Maliki Last Warning On Ceasefire (Updated)

By Cernig

Just breaking is the news that Muqtada al-Sadr has threatened to end his movement's ceasefire, unless the Maliki government and US military end their crackdown, in a statement posted to his website.

The cleric says he is giving his final warning to the Iraqi government to stop working with the U.S. military against him or he will "declare an open war until liberation."

The threat to lift a more than 7-month-old cease-fire comes amid fighting between al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia and U.S.-Iraqi troops in Baghdad's Sadr City and the southern city of Basra.

That would also mean that Sadr would have to give up any attempts to remain a part of the political process, as General Petraeus recently hoped he would. Given all that has gone before, including Maliki's promise to sideline Sadr politically if he didn't disband the Mahdi Army, I don't see Maliki backing down, so...

Update More from the Associated Press: Sadr clearly blames the ISCI/Badrist wing of Maliki's ruling coalition for the fighting to date, by trying to enforce its own political supremacy at gunpoint.

The statement, which was posted on his Web site, accused the U.S.-backed government of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of betraying the movement and the Iraqi people.

"So I direct my last warning and speech to the Iraqi government to refrain and to take the path of peace and abandon violence against its people," al-Sadr said in the statement. "If the government does not refrain and leash the militias that have penetrated it, we will announce an open war until liberation."

And as I wrote, quoting Matt Duss, earlier today - he has a ready-made narrative for being a "liberator".

"Do you want a third uprising?" al-Sadr asked in the statement.

He also evoked a comparison with Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime, which widely suppressed Iraq's majority Shiites.

"Despite our freeze of the Mahdi Army, our initiatives to defuse the tension and our calls for peaceful protests and strikes, after all these negotiations and concessions, you are becoming arrogant and adopt the policies of Saddam who used to ban Friday prayers, close the clerics' offices and resort to assassinations," he said.

The lifting of the Sadrist cease-fire could jeopardize recent security gains. The military considers the truce one of the pivotal factors behind a sharp decline in violence, along with a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq and an influx of some 30,000 U.S. troops.

I might be wrong, but I think the two previous uprisings Sadr is referring to were the April 2004 one against the US occupation and the 1991 one against Saddam's rule. That's a mighty potent image to be levelling against the Iraqi Prime Minister.

Update 2 Reuters:

In Sadr's Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City, one Mehdi Army commander said he was "thrilled" about the statement.

The specter of a full-scale uprising by Sadr sharply raises the stakes in his confrontation with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who has threatened to ban the anti-American cleric's movement from political life unless he disbands his militia.

A rebellion by Sadr's Mehdi Army militia -- which has tens of thousands of fighters -- could also reverse overall security gains at a time when U.S. forces are starting to leave Iraq.

...In Sadr's Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City, one Mehdi Army commander said he was "thrilled" about the statement.

"We will wait until tomorrow to see the response of the government. Otherwise they will see black days like they have never seen before in their life."

So, a 24 hour ultimatum.

Comments

[Klaus]

Possibly Mookie could also be referring to the riots in 1999, when Sadiq al-Sadr was murdered, in which SCIRI was also accused of being complicit, if not practically then morally.

[BJ]

I thought the second uprising would be a reference to the fighting in August of 2004 around the Imam Ali shrine.

[Steve Hynd]

There's also some conflicting reports on the time limit on the ultimatum, with anywhere between 24 hours and 14 days being quoted. I guess we'll find out when the ceasefire ends.

Regards, C

[Paul]

Sadr is a target, because he is against privatizing Iraq's natural resources, against any foreign government (including Iran) exercising sovereignty over Iraq, because he is against the partitioning of the nation, because he demands Iraqi control of the sovereign nation of Iraq...

From what I can see, al-Sadr is more in tune with what we profess to want for Iraq than the Maliki government. Maliki and crew are in up to their necks with the Iranians, have all but promised us control over their oil, have given the green light to permanent bases, have effectively welcomed the colonization of Iraq.

Thus, they want to wipe al-Sadr out. It should be obvious that they can't, the majority supports him and what he represents. I think the attempt is going to backfire bigtime. If we commit our troops to supporting Maliki's move, which will be the same as remissioning them to serve Haliburton/Exxon-Mobil's growth plans, we are going to end up seriously wishing we hadn't done it. Just a prediction.