Government Forces In New Show Of Force In Basra

By Cernig

This morning, there are breaking reports that the Iraqi Army is on the move in Basra, sending a coulumn of troops deep into one of the Mahdi Army's strongholds in the city. But it's unclear if they're mounting a new truce-breaking offensive or just staging a procession for PR purposes.

Associated Press:

BASRA, Iraq - The Iraqi commander of an offensive against Shiite militias has led a convoy into a Mahdi Army stronghold that has seen some of the fiercest fighting in the southern city of Basra.

Lt. Gen. Mohan al-Fireji, who is leading the joint military-police operation, and the convoy have entered the Hayaniyah area and the troops began shooting into the air in a show of force before opening traffic.

The move comes a day after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki returned to Baghdad after spending a week in Basra overseeing the crackdown that provoked widespread retaliatory clashes in the capital and across the southern Shiite heartland.

By the way, did anyone else notice that Maliki appears to have kept to a timetable of leaving Basra within 48 hours of Sadr's ceasefire - as reported by some nationalist Iraqi media - whether or not such an agreement was part of Sadr's official statement. Coincidence?

Reuters adds that there are reports of sporadic clashes, but that the Iraqi Army commander has denied there's any new fighting.

A roadside bomb exploded near a convoy carrying Iraqi generals in a Shi'ite militia stronghold in the southern city of Basra on Wednesday, but the officials were unhurt, one of the officers said.

...There were reports of sporadic clashes in Basra on Wednesday, but Askari denied there had been any fresh fighting.

Hundreds of people were killed and many more wounded in last week's fighting after Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered a crackdown on Shi'ite militiamen in Basra. Sadr ordered his fighters off the streets on Sunday.

One witness said he had earlier heard Iraqi army loudspeakers ordering people to close their shops and to stay at home in Hayaniya. He then heard explosions and gunfire.

Overall, Basra was relatively calm for a third straight day on Wednesday.

That government forces are trying to play down an IED attack that almost took out their command group and are denying reports of fresh fighting suggests strongly that this is a procession for PR effect that isn't intended to stick around. If so, Maliki's government will use it as a PR exercise to say that the Sadrists didn't force them to halt offensive operations and that everything is now under control, before leaving the city to the Mahdi Army. If not, then we might see round two of the battle to control the October regional elections starting up sooner than expected. As I wrote yesterday, most analysts see the current lull as simply that, a truce rather than a peace. But if I were a betting man, then right now I'd bet on the truce being broken in Baghdad, where Maliki can rely on some serious US military backup, rather than in Basra.

Comments

[opit]

AlterNet has an article by Jarrar/Holland that I think really worthwhile. It's not the first.

[Cernig]

Got a link for that, Opit? Thanks, C

[Rudi]

Lets see what happens in the coming weeks. What will Patty have to say to Congress.