May 13, 2008

The Ethics of Forced Interventions

By BJ

A couple of stories today got me thinking about when it would actually be the ethical choice to intervene by force for humanitarian reasons. The idea has most recently gained attention again due to the situation in Burma, but the story that got me thinking is a forced intervention of a far smaller scale.

A young boy suffering from a return of cancer that was once beaten into remission by chemotherapy. When it returned, he and his family refused treatment, but the courts intervened and are forcing him to take the treatments.

"If a doctor says [therapy] is in your best interest and you say you don't want it, within our laws, ethically and legally, that's fully acceptable," said Kerry Bowman of the University of Toronto's Joint Centre for Bioethics.

"And in this case that's kind of turned upside down. Best interests have taken over as opposed to what the family believes, and I think there's a lot of ethical tension here, and I think it's pretty worrisome."

As a child, his views are basically being dismissed as uninformed, and there is more than a little precedent for overruling a families choice in such matters. Having said that, intervening in the “best interests” of the children can be a slippery slope, either here or in a case like that of the polygamous compound raided in Texas last month. When do you overrule the parent’s right to raise their own children? And who do you empower to do so? The same rationale was used to justify things like residential schooling for aboriginals, which hardly worked out as beneficial.

The above chemo case seems simple, but what if the only result of the chemo is to make the kid’s last few months an even more painful ordeal than it would have been otherwise?

The reason I find that story important for a decision on a forced intervention in someplace like Burma, (or Darfur, or Somalia, or Zimbabwe, or New Orleans), is because the rationale and purpose are much the same, to do what’s best for those who can’t help themselves, and where those who are nominally responsible for them are refusing to do what is required.

It seems simple, and we so like simple narratives. I tend to oppose such interventions because the situation is never as simple as it is usually portrayed, and because of those we're forced to trust with the responsibility should an intervention go forward. I trust the child's doctors above understand his medical condition as well as it can be understood. I have significantly less trust in world leaders' understanding of Burma.

The military junta in Burma is evil, and therefore we're likely to say that those who oppose it must be on the side of good. For an idea of why that’s a really bad way of looking at things, remember that bin Laden and his buddies in the Taliban were “freedom fighters” per Reagan back when the US was funding them to fight the “Evil Empire”. The fact that some nasty pieces of work are lording it over their opponents unfortunately doesn’t mean their opponents are on the side of angels. More often they’re almost interchangeable, and occasionally, the reason the current nasties are in charge is because the folks they’re fighting were even worse and lost the population's support.

The situation in Burma is anything but simple, something that Eric Margolis was kind enough to explain last October when the junta was crushing the massive demonstrations occurring at the time.

But extreme caution is advised in dealing with Myanmar. If things go wrong there, it could turn into an Southeast Asian version of Iraq, Yugoslavia or Afghanistan.

Myanmar’s central government has been at war for 50 years with 17 ethnic rebel groups seeking secession from the former 14-state Union of Burma created by Imperial Britain, godfather of many of the world’s worst current problems.

Burmans, of Tibetan ethnic origin, form 68% of the population of 57 million. But there are other important, distinct ethnic groups: Shan, the largely Christian Karen, Kachin, Chin, Mon, Wa, and Rakhine, Anglo-Burmese, Indians and Chinese. The largest, Shan, with their Shan State Army, are ethnically close to neighboring Thailand, and in cahoots with the Thai military. Each major ethnic group has its own army and finances itself through smuggling timber, jewels, arms, and drugs.

The military juntas in Rangoon, and its 500,000-man armed forces, know as `Tatmadaw,’ battled these secessionists for decades until the current junta managed to establish uneasy ceasefires with all the major rebel groups.

If the junta were to be replaced by a democratic civilian government led by the gentle Suu Kyi, and military repression ended, it is highly likely Myanmar’s ethnic rebellions would quickly re-ignite. The only force holding Myanmar together is the military and secret police.

Shan, Karen, Kachin, and Mon still demand their own independent nations. Burma’s powerful neighbors – India, China and Thailand – have their eye on this potentially resource-rich nation. They, and neighboring Bangladesh, also fear Burma’s troubles will spill across their borders, as occurred in 2002 when the military junta expelled thousands of Muslims to Bangladesh from the Arakan region.

Now who would you trust to intervene forcefully into that situation?

The decisions are tough ones, as they should be. It's very hard to see people suffer and die when there is way to save them, but how do you ensure that your intervention doesn't end up causing more harm than the situation you intervened to stop would have caused on it's own? And is it ethical to let people die because you think intervening would be worse?

Sacrifice Par None

By Cernig

What's a Deciderer in Chief to do to when his troops are sacrificing life and limb, mental health and family integrity, for his war of choice?

Give up golf, of course. No sacrifice is too great for the troops. "I think playing golf during a war just sends the wrong signal."

You go to war with the handicap you have...

Man jailed for daughter's GED failure

By Libby

Read this and be glad you're not the parent of problem teenager in Ohio. Judge David Niehaus of Butler County Juvenile Court sentenced Brian Gegner to six months in jail because his 19 year daughter Brittany has been unable to pass the math portion of the GED test. Even more astounding, although Gegner has legal custody of the daughter, she has been living with her birth mother since she herself gave birth to a child at the age of 17.

The court claims jurisdiction over the case because it began when the girl was 16 years old when she came before the bench on account of her truancy problems. Ironically, she ended up in the court system because Mr. Gergen and his second wife sought help from the authorities in trying to control the child.

Gergen's sister adds some context to the story. Gergen never married Brittany's mother and sought custody of the girl and her brother when they were toddlers. She has a history of acting out in her teen years and after she gave birth, she pleaded to be allowed to move in with her birth mom, which she did along with her baby and the baby's father. Both the daughter and birth mother agree that Gergen should not be the one held responsible for her failure to pass the test. Again, it is the only the math portion of the GED she has failed. She successfully passed the other subjects and is still trying to pass the math portion.

As for the judge, a Republican who was elected to the bench, he has an interesting record of decisions. He apparently is more offended by truant schoolgirls than he is by teenage rapists.

Two 15-year-old boys have been sentenced to a rehabilitation center for the rape of a third boy on a school bus. The Butler County Juvenile Court Judge originally gave each of the boys a one-year sentence -- one boy for rape and the other for complicity to rape.

David Niehaus then suspended the sentences in favor of a rehabilitation program in Hamilton, north of Cincinnati. The judge warned them that if they aren't successful in rehabilitation they could be put behind bars. When the boys finish the program Niehaus will decide whether they should be classified as sexual offenders.

And I couldn't find the final disposition on this case of child molestation but he did let the perpetrator plead down.

A teenage boy has pleaded guilty to reduced sex charges involving two younger boys he was babysitting in Butler County. The baby sitter, now 16, pleaded guilty to six counts of gross sexual imposition. He had originally been charged with rape of two boys who were ages 9 and 11 at the time of the alleged crimes. Judge David Niehaus set sentencing for 9 a.m. April 11 in Butler County Juvenile Court. The teen was released on electronic monitoring awaiting sentencing.

However, he apparently believes in throwing the book at parents.

A judge ordered jail time for a man and woman convicted of attempted assault for tying the woman's 12-year-old son to a lawn chair with duct tape. Butler County Juvenile Court Judge David Niehaus sentenced David Edester, 41, to 20 days in jail for confining his stepson to the chair for 2 1/2 hours May 5. The boy suffered a severe sunburn, police said.

That's not to condone the parent's choice of punishment but considering his decision here that caused the death of an infant, one might suggest he review his approach to penalites.

Tiffany died Sept. 30, 1986, from gangrene when the wounds she suffered from continuous beatings became infected. She had been living with her father for 27 days. Butler County Children Services had taken the child away from Jackson alleging poor living conditions.

Butler County Juvenile Court Judge David Niehaus placed Tiffany with Hubbard even though a psychologist’s report cautioned against it, and despite Hubbard’s juvenile conviction at 17 for molesting a 7-year-old.

Ironically he's been named Judge of the Year at least twice. If this is the best Ohio has got, I'd hate to see what the worst are like. [h/t Paul Wright]

All Over but the Fighting

by Eric Martin

With news breaking over the weekend of an apparent truce in Sadr City between Iraqi government and US forces on one hand, and Sadr's Mahdi Army militia on the other, the reactions have been as expected.  They range from the triumphalist (suggesting that the truce is a sign of Sadr's defeat (again!), and US victory, such that " hopes of a US failure in Iraq were wrong - as they have always been," and that the ISCI/Dawa victory is a blow against Iran) to the more circumspect (focusing mostly on whether the cease-fire will hold and which side, if any, could claim victory).

So it occurred to me, after reading of today's violent clashes in Sadr City, that there is, perhaps, a more appropriate response to this news item: Will the cease fire ever actually kick-in, let alone hold - forget about whether it signals some grand victory for Maliki?  First things first, after all:

A fragile cease-fire failed to stop fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City where the latest clashes between Shiite extremists and U.S.-backed Iraqi forces killed 11 men and wounded 19, Iraqi hospital officials said Tuesday.

The U.S. military said that it responded to several attacks by militants with precision strikes, but only confirmed killing three militants. Two of the militants were killed in a Hellfire missile strike by an attack aircraft, according to the military. U.S. soldiers also suppressed "enemy fire" in four other clashes with tanks and attack aircraft, the military said.

The clashes erupted late Monday, just hours after Iraq's main Shiite political bloc and supporters of firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr signed a cease-fire with the hope of ending seven-weeks of fighting that has left hundreds of people dead in the capital.

It was not immediately clear if the those killed in the clashes, which escalated early Tuesday, were militants or civilians. There were women and children among the wounded, said hospital officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

Which is not to be confused with the post-cease fire fighting on Sunday. Or the heavy bombardment on Saturday (according to Voices of Iraq, grain of salt and all). 

There are some good reasons that the status of the cease-fire remains uncertain: For one, Sadr himself has yet to issue a public statement endorsing the truce (though his reps reportedly signed the agreement), the current version permits the US military to continue bombing Sadr City (a big sticking point for obvious reasons) and...the cease fire itself is only slated to last four days!  That renders the current incarnation of the cease fire of the temporary variety.

Despite the foregoing, it is entirely possible that a workable, long-term cease-fire will be hammered out, and that the violence will subside completely over the coming days and weeks.  However, that has not happened yet.  The cease-fire has yet to be fully implemented, and even if it were put into effect immediately, it is set to expire by the end of the week.  The attacks, unfortunately, continue and the civilian casualties mount.

Maybe Bruce McQuain wants to reconsider which of us was a day late and a dollar short.  Or are those dead Iraqis who met their fate in Sadr City on Saturday, Sunday and Monday (and beyond) just an acceptable coda?  Or perhaps it is uncouth, generally, to express concern for civilian deaths when the underlying military operation is nearing an end?  I lose track of proper etiquette sometimes.

(cross-posted at American Footprints)

More thoughts on Lebanon

By Fester:

I have not written much about Lebanon and Hezbollah's takedown of Beirut and the majority of the militias of their political rivals as I do not know enough about the region to be too intelligent.  However I can free ride off of people who pay much more attention to this region than I do.  Ilan Goldenburg at Attackerman argues that this was a premeditated move by Hezbollah (I agree) that was looking for a causus belli as it was too well planned to be anything spontaneous.  He thinks the Lebanese government misread the situation but Hezbollah had limited and primarily political and credibility objectives rather than a coup on their mind.

He finishes up with three potential future paths; staring at the brink and a step-back from civil war, a pause before a social system disruption event occurs, or a continued stalemate.  He leans towards a stalemate that is similar to the political stalemate that has dominated Lebanon for most of the past year.

The Yorkshire Ranter has another take on this as he sees a significant reshuffling of the political cards past the obvious on the ground gains Hezbollah has seen.  The other winner is the Lebanese Army in this scenario:

all the territory Hezbollah and Amal took was immediately handed over to the official Lebanese military, an increasingly powerful force in politics.

Arguably, this suggests that some of the ideas floated in 2006 about incorporating Hezbollah in the Lebanese military as some sort of reserve/militia/national guard/territorial army/jaegers/greenjackets/cossacks/whatever else you call those crazy bastards on the border, as long as they don't bother you and keep the roads open, are being put in effect de facto....

You could call it the Haganah-isation of Hezbollah; it's changing not just from a guerrilla force to an army, but also from a political party to an unstate with a shadow administration, an economy, and its own infrastructure, just as the Israeli founding generation built a mixed economy, a trade union movement, a shadow civil service, and a highly capable semi-guerrilla army/intelligence service long before the state became a formal reality. I'm only surprised they didn't start a commercial GSM network as cover for their own command-and-control system; perhaps they will.

Meanwhile, again, this is an example of the democratization of technology....

Under this theory the legitimacy of the state is weakened as it does not have a monopoly on force within its capital while the theoretical provider of that monopoly, the Lebanese Army has its de facto legitimacy increased as it divides its sphere of influence with the non-state actor of Hezbollah.  This is hollowing out the state by co-opting a significant pillar of state support if this theory is true... Interesting and worthy of further notice....

Supreme Court Rules Apartheid Victims Can Sue US Corps

By Cernig

I wonder why I had to turn to Murdoch's British press oulet for this story?

Thousands of South Africans who suffered under apartheid won the right yesterday to sue a number of companies, including BP, Citigroup and Ford, for allegedly helping to perpetrate human rights abuses.

The US Supreme Court ruled that three class actions can use the American legal system to sue approximately 50 international corporations who they believe “knowingly aided and abetted the South African military and security forces”. Some legal experts have estimated that the companies could be sued for as much as $400 billion.

The corporations that could be facing a court challenge in the United States also include ExxonMobil, UBS, Deutsche Bank, General Motors, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Bank of America and General Electric.

After all, this is a potentially huge story. If the plaintiffs can prove that, for example, a motor company knew that lorries that it sold in South Africa would be used as armoured vehicles to destroy townships or a technology company sold computer equipment and software that would be used to operate a racial identification system and thus knowingly helped the old South African commit atrocities, then those companies would be on the hook for hundreds of billions in damages for at a time when the nation is heading into a recession. Nevermind the possibility that one or more companies might defend their actions by saying "but the Reagan government told us it would be OK".

If you had shares in one of those companies - and you might well do as part of your retirement planning - wouldn't you want to know about this? Wouldn't you expect FOX business, the WSJ and other US media outlets to be covering it?

Speaking to The Times, Michael Hausfeld, the lead counsel for the Khulumani group, which is based in Washington, said: “We want a legal acknowledgement of accountability, that these international corporations knowingly helped the regime violate human rights.

“A ruling in our favour would have two possible impacts. It would force the companies to pay compensation to those who were injured as a consequence of the abuses they suffered. It would also trigger a change in corporate governance.”

...The American and foreign corporations have appealed to the Supreme Court. The Bush Administration and business groups have supported their appeal.

Because heaven forbid a Republican administration ever increased corporate governance so as to prevent violations of human rights.

Unintended Consequences

By Cernig

The BBC is reporting that the typhoon disaster in Burma wouldn't have been so bad if there had been more mangroves, which break up wave surges from big storms preventing killer tidal waves and floods.

ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan said coastal developments had resulted in mangroves, which act as a natural defence against storms, being lost.

At least 22,000 people have died in the disaster, say state officials.

A study of the 2004 Asian tsunami found that areas near healthy mangroves suffered less damage and fewer deaths.

Mr Surin, speaking at a high-level meeting of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Singapore, said the combination of more people living in coastal areas and the loss of mangroves had exacerbated the tragedy.

Encroachment into mangrove forests, which used to serve as a buffer between the rising tide, between big waves and storms and residential areas; all those lands have been destroyed," the AFP news agency reported him as saying.

"Human beings are now direct victims of such natural forces."

The world has been losing mangrove areas to human development at the rate of 100,000 hectares plus every year for decades now - and in Louisiana, Sri Lanka and now Burma humans have died as an unintended consequence of modernisation and tourism. In places like Florida, they're now sinking rock-filled boats along the edges of their denuded mangrove swamps in the hope of encouraging their expansion.

I don't really have a point here beyond the obvious one - that messing with the environment always has payback and that head-in-the-sand denial leaves blood on the denialists hands. But that's a point woth making more often. Although I would note that those most likely to be enironmental denialists over such as global warming and rampant development are also likely to be those most enamoured of solving the resultant humanitarian messes by military action, dropping thousands of pounds of high explosive on the landscape...including the mangroves. That'll so help in the long run.

Germany Declines To Copy Rice's NSC "Failure"

By Cernig

How long do you think America's reputation will take to recover from the Bush administration's ineptness?

Germany's foreign minister has rejected plans by Chancellor Angela Merkel's party to set up a U.S.-style National Security Council to oversee foreign policy, saying the body proved a failure in the run-up to the Iraq war.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a speech in Berlin on Monday that the U.S. NSC, which was run by Condoleezza Rice when the United States launched its invasion of Iraq, had "suppressed all counterarguments" to the war in 2003.

"This cannot be the model for us," said Steinmeier, a member of the centre-left Social Democrats, who under former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder staunchly opposed the Iraq war.

Decades, that's how long. For as long as the U.S. is in Iraq, and a while after that, America's reputation will be that of the superpower that started a war by fixing the intelligence around the policy, just because it could.

New security threat - scientific researchers

By Libby

We all know by now that the Bush administration has been waging an undeclared war on climatology along with all other realms of scientific knowledge but declaring oceanography students to be threats to national security seems a little over the top, even for them.

A German graduate student in oceanography at M.I.T. applied to the Transportation Security Administration for a new ID card allowing him to work around ships and docks. What the student, Wilken-Jon von Appen, received in return was a letter that not only turned him down but added an ominous warning from John M. Busch, a security administration official: “I have determined that you pose a security threat.”

Similar letters have gone to 5,000 applicants across the country who have at least initially been turned down for a Transportation Worker Identification Credential, an ID card meant to guard against acts of terrorism, agency officials said Monday.

There's no indication that the letters detail the grounds on which the decision was based other than their status as foreign nationals, even if they hail from US friendly countries. Last I heard Germany and England were still listed as allies but I'd guess the real threat is that their work is likely to prove detrimental to the economic security of US corporations that profit from ecological disruption.

That's our DHS. Keeping us safe from grad students. Meanwhile, despite a flurry of U.S. government initiatives since 9/11 that create the illusion of port security, the vast majority of cargo containers still enter uninspected based mainly on unverified assurances of compliance and air cargo inspections remain negligible.

Operation Lion's Roar And Caesar's Ghost

By Cernig

I've always found the official titles for military operations somewhat ridiculous, laden as they are with testosterone-heavy chest beating - as if a macho title to the latest operation will make anyone fight harder or console the wounded with the knowledge that they lost a limb for the Desert Storm or the Knight's Move. But the latest such cliched manouver in Iraq, the Iraqi Army's "Lion's Roar" offensive in and around Mosul, deserves some attention - not least because everyone locally understands the lion in question is definitely Persian.

For one thing, the Iraqi Interior Ministry just announced the capture of around 500 "suspected insurgents" in the first three days of the offensive. Either Al Qaeda's "last refuge" has a bigger insurgent presence than we were led to believe or the Iraqi Army are rounding up people and simply calling them insurgents. On previous experience, either is possible - but there are good reasons to believe the former.

This Mosul offensive has been ongoing since at least February 11th when 1,000 U.S. and Iraqi forces backed by helicopters and tanks were sent in to the city after an uptick in violence at the end of January which prompted protests from the provincial governor and city police chief that they were being left out on a limb by the central government. At the time, Iraqi officials spoke of "cleansing" Mosul of al Qaeda fighters and Maliki said the Iraqi Army would “finish the last battle with Al Qaeda, the gangs and the remnants of the past regime” - but the forces sent - when 3,000 additional troops had originally been promised - proved inadequate to the task.

We now know why the Iraqi government was being pasimonious in sending troops to Mosul, of course - they were needed for Maliki's electioneering-at-gunpoint confrontation with the Sadrist movement in Basra and then Baghdad.

Veteran journalist for the UK's Independent newspaper, Patrick Cockburn, is currently in Mosul and his experience compares unfavorably with that of Spencer Ackerman last March.

Mosul looks like a city of the dead. American and Iraqi troops have launched an attack aimed at crushing the last bastion of al Qaeda in Iraq and in doing so have turned the country's northern capital into a ghost town.

Soldiers shoot at any civilian vehicle on the streets in defiance of a strict curfew. Two men, a woman and child in one car which failed to stop were shot dead yesterday by U.S. troops, who issued a statement saying the men were armed and one made "threatening movements".

Mosul, on the Tigris river, is inhabited by 1.4 million people, but has been sealed off from the outside world by hundreds of police and army checkpoints since the Iraqi government offensive against al Qaeda began at 4am on Saturday. The operation is a critical part of an attempt to reassert military control over Iraq which has led to heavy fighting in Baghdad and Basra.

The besieged city is now difficult to reach; we began the journey from the Kurdish capital Arbil in a convoy of white pick-up trucks, each with a heavy machine gun in the back manned by alert-looking soldiers, some wearing black face masks, that were escorting Khasro Goran, the deputy governor of Mosul, to his office in the city.

...I had been to Mosul down this road half a dozen times since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and on each occasion the military escort necessary to reach the city safely has grown bigger.

...Outside the police headquarters, the black vehicles of the Interior Ministry, each with a heavy machine gun and a yellow head of a tiger as an insignia on the doors, were drawn up in rows. American helicopters flew high overhead as well as drones for reconnaissance. There was the occasional burst of firing and bomb blast in the distance. The governor of Mosul, Dunaid Kashmoula, says the city "has come to be dominated by the leaders of al Qaeda as a result of the delay in the military operation" originally scheduled for earlier this year.

Since September, attacks and fatalities in Mosul have doubled. In January, the Iraqi Defense Minister said that "The situation in Mosul is worse than imagined by far".

What caused this flare-up? The official narrative, that Mosul is seeing increasing violence because it has become the new center for Al Qaeda, is problemmatic in that it implicitly ascribes a worrying ability to regenerate to what a few months ago were meant to be scattered and small remnants of that group. Yet we're seeing no mention of this hyrda-like capacity in thin mainstream reporting so far.

However, there's another possibility that no-ones talking about too - that the insurgency isn't just an AQI one, but wider based and originating in abuse of Mosul citizens by occupying US and (Shiite) Iraqi Army forces. Back in early January, regional news outlets carried word of the shooting of two US servicemen just after Christmas by a Sunni Iraqi Army soldier. Local reports had it that the soldier got into an argument with an American officer who had been beating a pregnant Iraqi woman and the argument escalated to the point where he opened fire.

"I was there when the American captain and his soldiers raided a neighbourhood and started shouting at women to tell them where some men they wanted were," a resident of Mosul, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IPS on phone. "The women told them they did not know, and their men did not do anything wrong, and started crying in fear."

The witness said the U.S. captain began to shout at his soldiers and the women, and his men then started to grab the women and pull them by their hair.

"The soldier we knew later to be Kaissar shouted at the Americans, 'No, No,' but the captain shouted back at the Iraqi soldier," the witness told IPS. "Then the Iraqi soldier shouted, 'Let go of the women you sons of bitches,' and started shooting at them." The soldier, he said, then ran off.

The soldier, known as Caesar, was subsequently captured and the Iraqi Army took great pains to say he was an Al Qaeda mole and that there were probably others inside Army - and especially local Awakening - ranks. US officials denied the Sunni story but it seemed to have taken hold with local Sunnis anyway. Shortly after the incident, graffiti and leaflets began appearing in Mosul saying "well done, Caesar" and exhorting others to follow his example. Shortly thereafter, the latest round of escalating violence began in a city which had been relatively peaceful until then.

I've a feeling the mainstream media are missing a story here. Perfunctory dismissals at the time did nothing to defuse Sunni ill-will over their version of the incident and no full investigation of the circumstances surrounding the shooting was ever made public. A real hearts-and-minds failure in other words. That failure may well have been a major contributor to current events and one that should be addressed if peace is to return to Mosul. Left alone, the tale will continue to fester, pushing Sunnis into the regenerating insurgency and setting up a new whack-a-mole scenario in the city.

The 'new' normal life in Baghdad

By Libby

Bill Ardolino is peddling surge success with pictures today. He strolls the Shorja Market with the Sons of Iraq and defines the new normal.

Since the improvement in security, central Baghdad has regained a sense of normalcy. Aside from the legion of security personnel bristling with weapons and ubiquitous concrete barriers, portions of the capital bustle and hum with an energy common to all big cities. At the market, children played in the streets while adults shopped, ate, and socialized over chai. The Sons of Iraq moved easily among them and seemed well-received by the locals. [emphasis added]

I'm sure they do seem to be well-received. How would anyboby treat armed enforcers of the peace except with at least feigned respect? Oddly, I was thinking about the old definition of normal in Baghdad this weekend and posted about it at my own blog. Contrast Roggio's photos with this mundane video of a typical street scene before the invasion. [Note it's a little glitchy for the first couple of minutes and the bulk of the nightime scenes start from about the four minute mark]. Especially poignant are the last frames in which an local Iraqi speaks.

Tell all the Western foreigners. We are like this. Normal. No problem.

One can't to fail to notice there are no women in Roggio's pictures but he does take care to capture the smiling children. However, look at the difference in the children between Roggio's photos and the candid snaps here. The knowledge of the horrors these children have witnessed, now reflected in their eyes, breaks the heart. I posted links to many more photos of the old normal before the trees were cut down, before the ancient buildings were bombed, before the Tigris was fouled, but the greatest damage can't be shown in pictures. As Baghdad's Kassakhoon said in comments to my post:

We may be able to regain our buildings, streets and treasures but the thing we can't get back and I think it is bigger than all your losings is that the damage that has affected our society.

It is something we have not seen before: the Shiite hates his Sunni neighbor and vice versa and the Sunni man can't marry a Shiite woman and vice versa.

No matter how the warmongers define, and redefine, success in Iraq, this new normal will be the real legacy of the invasion. The bitter divisions fostered in their society as a result of the liberation will take generations to heal.

Propaganda is funny, but it's not a joke

By Libby

I haven't been digging into the DOD document dump myself but it is proving to be a treasure trove, as documented here by our resident wonks. Today TPM reveals the lighter side of the Pentagon's illegal domestic psyops campaign.

Back in June 2006 there's this email ...

hi. jed babbin, one of our military analysts, is hosting the michael medved nationally syndicated radio show this afternoon. he would like to see if general casey would be available for a phone interview any time between 3 and 6 pm. topics would be: status of operations in iraq and if troop levels should/can/will be reduced. ... please feel free to contact jed directly (contact info below) if the general can/would be available for the interview. this would be a softball interview and the show is 8th or 9th in the nation.

A short time later a press flack from the Office of the Secretary of Defense writes back ...

Hi Thanks for sending this. Just fyi, probably wouldn't put "softball" interview in writing. If that got out it would compromise jed and general casey.

If you happen to be harboring any stray doubts that the Pentagon also successfully co-opted the wingosphere into their game plan, TPM adds, Babbin is now the editor of Human Events Online.

I'd be more amused by this if I thought it would have any effect on diminishing the credibility of all these perpetrators of misinformation but considering the legacy media's determined avoidance of covering this gross fraud, I doubt if these revelations will filter out to the majority of the electorate. I expect they'll get the last laugh. They'll simply ride out the well deserved ridicule from the alternate media and continue to pummel the people with the propaganda.

LIBOR Liars

By Fester

About a month ago, I noted the problems with the London Interbank Overnight Rate (LIBOR) which is the price of money banks charge each other for short term loans.  The numbers were looking to be junk as banks were lying about their costs by understating the rates they were paying.  And this would lead to several significant problems.  The most apparent would be an increase in adjustable rate mortgage costs as half of American ARMs are tied to the LIBOR rate, but more systemically, it was a symptom of a fouled up credit market:

Good, reliable and trustworthy information is critical to making consistently good decisions as evaluated from a process perspective.  Good information in an effective decision and analysis system will lead to a higher probability of good outcomes.  Intentionally feeding garbage into a decision loop is an excellent way to create bad outcomes...

If lenders begin to not trust the LIBOR numbers, they will move their rate indexes to other indexes or raise the allowable spreads in order to compensate for what is perceived to be the 'real LIBOR' rate. 

However those types of interest rate and interest spread adjustments will quickly fail as the garbage in the information loop drives out good data and good money.  What was once a decision to offer a loan on a set of mutually agreeable conditions that were shaped by quantifiable risk is moving towards guesstimates and ass covering as uncertainty takes over.  Risk is defined as known probabilities of a loss.  A higher interest rate can be calculated to assure a reasonable expectation of profit for a given risk.  However uncertainty is unknowable and therefore incalculable.  When uncertainty dominates a system, the rational, profit seeking response is to get the hell out of that arena. 

Bloomberg reports that the garbage truck is arriving and is picking up the crap information through the form sanctions and banning of access to cheap credit:

The BBA, an unregulated London-based trade group, sets Libor by polling 16 banks each day on the rates they pay for loans in dollars, British pounds, euros and eight other currencies. The association is under pressure to show the rates are reliable following complaints by investors that financial institutions weren't telling the truth....

Libor rates jumped after the BBA said April 16 that any member banks found to be misquoting rates will be banned. The cost of borrowing in dollars for three months rose 18 basis points to 2.91 percent in the following two days, the biggest increase since the start of the credit squeeze last August.

This is a good step.  Driving out uncertainty and replacing it with risk reduces counter-party and trust risks.  Relying on good data even at the cost of slightly higher interest rates means more deals can be done as the data reflects reality and not fantasy. 

Big Blog Hogs

By Fester ---

Over the next day or two, don't be surprised if you see a good chunk of the 'Hog crossposted over at Attackerman as for some reason those respectable people at ThinkProgress gave us the keys (and an editor whose life I plan on making miserable with 73 word sentences!)

Medium Media Fester 5/13/08

By Fester

I'll be on the Shaun OMac show tonight at 10:00pm to talk politics, economics, and foreign affairs.  Hope to hear a couple of Hoggers call in.  You can find us at this link.

Tainted by Torture

By Fester:

MSNBC is reporting that one of the military commission/tribunals has been cancelled against the alleged 20th hijacker as the entire trial and evidence chain has been tainted by torture:

The Pentagon has dropped charges against a Saudi at Guantanamo who was alleged to have been the so-called "20th hijacker" in the Sept. 11 attacks, his U.S. military defense lawyer said Monday...

But in reviewing the case, the convening authority for military commissions, Susan Crawford, decided to dismiss the charges against al-Qahtani...

The attorney said he could not comment on the reasons for the dismissal until discussing the case with lawyers for the other five defendants. Officials previously said al-Qahtani had been subjected to a harsh interrogation authorized by former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

This is what happens when we as a country lack the balls to follow our own rules and basic societal norms.  If the case against Qahtani was solid it could have been proven in the same damn way that the case against the original WTC bombers was proven --- meticulous work within a framework of law.  That worked and that increased the legitimacy and prestige of the United States because we acted with justice instead of vengeance.  We acted with restraint instead of fear. And that restraint strengthened us. 

This amazing lack of faith in American institutions still astounds be at times coming from such dime story patriots and nationalistic tinged messaging machines.  America 's restraint and faith in the rule of law is a strength and not a weakness.  Today torture is an embarrassment  whose stain can not be easily removed even as it lessens our credibility, legitimacy and moral orientation.  Grow some balls America, and believe in your principals again. 

MBIA and Vallejo

By Fester:

One of my hobbyhorses has been beating the drum on potential downside exposure the City of Pittsburgh has on its current debt due to its dependence on monoline insurers guaranteeing their debt.  The city has roughly twice its annual budget in general obligation debt and a mediocre at best credit rating.  It has been able to access the credit markets by buying a high rating from MBIA, FGIC, CIFG, Ambac or a few other municipal bond insurers.  These insurers guarantee the payment of principal and interest of Pittsburgh's bonds for a fee smaller than the added interest expense of offering bonds at a B rating instead of an AAA rating.

The problem has been that the monoline insurers got greedy and stupid at the same time.  They had a great business model of insuring very low risk municipal bonds and clearing a large net profit but they expanded into insuring and guaranteeing mortgage and other asset backed collateral debt obligations.  These guarantees have blown up in their faces as their modeling never assumed housing prices could decrease.  WHOOPSIE is the technical term for that type of mistake. 

The largest insurer is MBIA and it has not been having a good week (via Calculated Risk).  First we find out that the company has lost another $2.4 billion dollars this quarter.  Most of those losses come from further pay-outs on mortgage backed securities.  This is the area that we expect to see failures as the housing crunch is crushing bonds.  However there is a bit more bad news --- MBIA is on the hook for $50 million dollars in Vallejo, California bonds.  This is important because Vallejo is looking to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy.  Vallejo is not the only municipality considering that option; Jefferson County, Alabama is experiencing a massive liquidity crunch as their play on interest rate swaps failed miserably.  Pittsburgh considered bankruptcy before going into Act 47 quasi-bankruptcy. 

And right now these communities in trouble are ones with significant structural problems.  However as Mish noted at Global Economic Analysis, another wave of trouble is coming for stressed local government coffers --- reassessments based on declines in real and nominal property values instead of historically normal increases in local real estate values:

Yes, foreclosure sales do set the market if there are enough of them. Guess what? There are more than enough of them and whole neighborhoods are being repriced by market forces. Sadly, assessors have not figured this out. Even worse are cities counting on that tax revenue, spending like there's no tomorrow....

Tax assessors need to throw away the book. One out of line sale does not set a market but scores of them do. Entire neighborhoods have been repriced and it is a huge mistake to ignore distressed sales when distressed sales are the norm....

A taxpayer revolt and city budget crises are coming in mass. Is any city in the country prepared for it?

Pittsburgh and most of Pennsylvania should be able to ride through this problem due to the prevelance of the 'base year' system of non-assessment but most communities attempt to assess properties on a regular basis.  When assessments occur base values will decline.  All else being equal the same tax rate on a smaller base will result in less tax revenue.  However municipal expenses are only somewhat elastic (pension, debt and basic government costs are in the short run fixed costs) and most municipalities are prevented from running deficits so either severe cuts will be made or tax rates will significantly increase.  More likely a combination of moderate cuts and moderate rate increases will occur. 

Once these fights occur the other and traditionally very profitable segment of the monoline business model will be under significant pressure.  The incentive to default on local government debt can be strong if the political pressure means no changes in tax rates or decreases in tax rates to deal with the pain of lost income and lost equity and no decreases in public services.  Given that the voting age population is much older than the tax paying population, shifting the costs to the future is a rational choice in some communities.  If this begins to occur, another leg of the credit crunch will commence.   

Bold West Virginia Prediction

By Fester:

A local political observer with good ties to West Virginia sent the following prediction about West Virginia to me and s/he has an interesting outlook:

I’m going on record to predict a reverse race-based effect in WV.  By that I mean the undecideds will not break as to Clinton in the same proportion as the decideds are breaking now (nor better).  I’m puttin’ a dollar on it!

Down thar you gotta hide that O-love.

I'll stand aside from that dollar bet that the margin is less than thirty five points in West Virginia.... 

May 12, 2008

What happens if they are all "unelectable"?

By Ron Beasley

The Clinton campaign claims that Barack Obama is unelectable.  Many think Hillary Clinton is unelectable.  But what about John McCain?  If any one is unelectable it's John McCain.  He must support Bush policies because he needs the Bush cultists but......

Bush Hits New Low as 'Wrong Track' Rises

Public disgruntlement neared a record high and President Bush slipped to his career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the last year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And 31 percent approve of Bush's job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove.

And this:

Bush May Be as Harmful to McCain as Wright Is to Obama

PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush may do as much damage to John McCain's chances of being elected as Jeremiah Wright does to Barack Obama's, according to results of a recent USA Today/Gallup poll.

And there is lots of talk about a devisive Democratic convention but we have this:

Ron Pau'ls forces quietly plot GOP convention revolt against McCain

Virtually all the nation's political attention in recent weeks has focused on the compelling state-by-state presidential nomination struggle between two Democrats and the potential for party-splitting strife over there.

But in the meantime, quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota at the beginning of September.

And of course there is McCain's very own Ralph Nader.

Barr announces Libertarian White House bid

WASHINGTON - Former Republican Rep. Bob Barr launched a Libertarian Party presidential bid Monday, saying voters are hungry for an alternative to the status quo who would dramatically cut the federal government.

His candidacy throws a wild card into the White House race that many believe could peel away votes from Republican Sen. John McCain given the candidates' similar positions on fiscal policy.

A few weeks ago I suggested that the election would be decided by those who chose not to participate because none of the candidates were electable.

So who will decide? Those who simply decide not to participate. McCain's best chance is against Hillary. Many Republicans who might not vote will to keep Hillary Clinton out of the white. Hillary has managed to offend the black voters and the urban white voters. Obama will not inspire the Republicans as much and may pick up some Libertarian and even Republican votes. The only thing that Hillary's campaign has accomplished is to make her the least electable of the three.

So who will win in November?  I see Obama as the least "unelectable" and the probable winner in November.

Windows Nightmare

Ron Beasley

I haven't lost my voice but I did lose my computer.  On Saturday I was notified like everyone else that service pack 3 for Windows XP was available.  Sounded like a good idea so after backing up all my data files I started the down load.  After nearly three hours of download and installation I restarted the computer as instructed.  The installation was a major failure.  I was unable to even boot my computer in the safe mode.  I had to use my recovery disks which after an hour plus returned my computer to it's pristine state of two and a half years ago.  Most of Sunday was spent re-installing drivers and software in addition to the backed up data files.  I also lost my bookmarks but had those backed up on the Google tool bar.  I did lose all my cookies so I must remember all  my user names and passwords.  The nightmare is over and I hope to have something for you again soon.

Update

Thanks to Earl in comments I was not alone.

Don’t you love when a patch actually ends up harming a computer more then it helps? Well that seems to be that case with the latest (and much delayed) SP3 build that was released to Windows Update on Tuesday.

[.....]

I really think it would be hard to find someone that disagrees that 2006 - 2008 have been Microsofts worst PR years. A botched major OS upgrade, delayed service packs that are faulty when delivered, a laughable media player, shutdown of SPOT, failed acquisitions, and a whole new storage appliance line that actually erases data (with no fix in sight).

My next PC will be a Mac.

Update II

This is apparently a problem with machines with an AMD processors.


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